Chips quadruple yearly; energy has 4-14 year lead times
The Infrastructure Behind Agentic Finance, with Shashank Yadav and Greg Osuri of Akash Network (Fraction AI)
“It’s very, very hard to get anything above 100 megawatts right now in terms of data centers… training scale is impossible because of energy… [Nvidia] literally quadrupled their supply chain. Energy doesn’t work that way — there is a four-year lead time for transformers right now, like four years, and about a 14-year lead time for the turbines and generators.” — 00:56:53
Context: “Does AI have a compute problem or an energy problem?” — “Right now it’s energy.” He contrasts Nvidia’s H100 production ramp (caption-garbled figures: ~500K then ~2M) with grid hardware lead times; worst case is a return to coal, which still needs turbines.