# Open-Source AI 51 predictions

URL for any entry below: https://www.gregosuri.com/predictions/{theme}/{id}/
Markdown twin: append `index.md`.
This is a title index. Full quotes and citation details are in individual twins.

## open-source-ai — 51 statements, 2022–2026

Years: 2022 (3); 2023 (6); 2024 (32); 2025 (8); 2026 (2)

2022-07-14-overclock-labs-makes-no-money-on-akash-cehi — Overclock Labs makes no money on Akash
2022-11-03-bullish-on-stable-diffusion-as-the-first-open-sour-7qw5 — Bullish on Stable Diffusion as the first open-source AI model
2022-12-05-ai-must-be-owned-by-people-not-companies-6rxq — AI must be owned by people, not companies
2023-03-30-90-of-akash-contributors-are-outside-the-company-5yxh — 90% of Akash contributors are outside the company
2023-05-09-decentralized-access-is-a-precondition-for-open-so-lyjf — Decentralized access is a precondition for open-source AI to exist
2023-05-09-open-source-ai-is-going-to-be-the-future-zlcq — Open source AI is going to be the future
2023-05-09-open-source-will-eventually-win-out-over-closed-ai-7b6i — Open source will eventually win out over closed AI
2023-09-06-closed-source-goes-fast-open-source-goes-further-y7l5 — Closed source goes fast, open source goes further
2023-10-26-crypto-is-the-only-sustainability-model-for-pure-o-4mu2 — Crypto is the only sustainability model for pure open source
2024-01-09-small-language-models-are-taking-center-stage-zjiy — Small language models are taking center stage
2024-01-16-the-openai-board-crisis-proves-corporate-ai-is-fra-bfpp — The OpenAI board crisis proves corporate AI is fragile
2024-03-27-crypto-solves-open-source-sustainability-docker-ku-pj2o — Crypto solves open-source sustainability (Docker/Kubernetes failure)
2024-03-27-with-closed-source-you-go-fast-with-open-you-go-fa-uhcx — With closed source you go fast; with open you go far
2024-05-20-with-llama-3-open-source-caught-up-to-closed-sourc-gr42 — With Llama 3, open source caught up to closed source
2024-05-29-500-to-5-000-contributors-by-next-accelerate-43cl — 500 to 5,000 contributors by next Accelerate
2024-06-13-decentralized-training-must-be-solved-before-open-c3jp — Decentralized training must be solved before open frontier models stop
2024-06-18-ai-will-be-open-source-and-decentralized-it-s-too-6evb — AI will be open source and decentralized — it's too important not to be
2024-06-18-closed-ai-companies-will-embrace-open-source-the-f-6evb — Closed AI companies will embrace open source; the foundation layer must be open
2024-06-18-how-many-googles-are-we-denying-today-with-closed-6evb — How many Googles are we denying today with closed AI?
2024-06-18-open-source-ai-went-from-a-year-behind-to-three-mo-6evb — Open-source AI went from a year behind to three months behind closed AI
2024-06-18-with-closed-source-you-can-go-fast-with-open-sourc-6evb — "With closed source you can go fast; with open source you can go far"
2024-06-19-fighting-on-capitol-hill-to-keep-ai-open-source-incj — Fighting on Capitol Hill to keep AI open source
2024-07-17-agi-comes-from-swarms-of-small-specialized-models-5q5r — AGI comes from swarms of small specialized models, not bigger ones
2024-07-17-openai-is-lobbying-to-make-open-source-ai-illegal-qb4s — OpenAI is lobbying to make open-source AI illegal
2024-07-17-us-legislators-agree-open-decentralized-ai-is-bett-cqhb — US legislators agree: open, decentralized AI is better for America
2024-07-29-decentralization-is-the-sustainable-business-model-erpe — Decentralization is the sustainable business model open source never had
2024-08-02-ai-will-follow-linux-centralized-first-open-source-dzzw — AI will follow Linux: centralized first, open-source and user-owned eventually
2024-08-12-permission-models-can-go-fast-but-open-and-permiss-vnlp — "Permission models can go fast, but open and permissionless models can go far" — even the DoD runs Akash
2024-09-18-40-million-developers-could-write-ai-models-itho — 40 million developers could write AI models
2024-09-30-40-million-developers-could-write-ai-models-rhj3 — 40 million developers could write AI models
2024-10-02-incumbents-fight-to-close-ai-because-open-source-a-tra3 — Incumbents fight to close AI because open-source AI threatens their existence
2024-10-02-washington-consensus-low-touch-ai-policy-unless-op-tra3 — Washington consensus: low-touch AI policy unless open source causes concrete damage
2024-10-18-open-source-is-the-foundation-of-decentralization-sjhn — Open source is the foundation of decentralization
2024-10-24-open-source-ai-is-two-to-three-months-from-catchin-mv5y — Open source AI is two to three months from catching closed AI
2024-11-09-decentralized-training-s-unlock-is-open-biases-tlal — Decentralized training's unlock is open biases
2024-11-25-big-ai-companies-are-lobbying-to-ban-open-source-a-wc5s — Big AI companies are lobbying to ban open-source AI
2024-11-25-tokenized-model-ownership-contribute-compute-own-t-bcqq — Tokenized model ownership: contribute compute, own the model, earn on inference
2024-11-26-forces-on-capitol-hill-are-fighting-to-keep-ai-clo-2hit — Forces on Capitol Hill are fighting to keep AI closed source
2024-11-26-open-access-to-information-drives-human-evolution-enki — Open access to information drives human evolution
2024-11-26-sufficiently-successful-software-must-be-open-sour-aaxh — Sufficiently successful software must be open source — the cloud went the other way
2024-12-06-a-managed-services-marketplace-where-open-source-a-s4up — A managed-services marketplace where open-source authors cut out the middleman — within a year
2025-01-02-open-source-will-beat-centralized-ai-like-linux-di-76yh — Open source will beat centralized AI — like Linux did
2025-01-31-open-technologies-will-exceed-closed-communities-o-ezwp — Open technologies will exceed closed; communities overpower companies
2025-01-31-openai-is-the-modern-aol-eczi — OpenAI is the modern AOL
2025-02-26-open-source-agi-has-to-happen-ld3u — Open-source AGI has to happen
2025-02-26-openai-will-be-the-new-aol-o4rg — OpenAI will be the new AOL
2025-03-17-akash-s-services-economy-will-make-open-source-sus-gsve — Akash's services economy will make open source sustainable
2025-04-18-open-source-clones-are-closing-the-gap-on-gpt-4-fa-t6fj — Open-source clones are closing the gap on GPT-4 fast
2025-07-31-open-source-is-keeping-the-lights-on-and-is-the-fo-p7mv — Open source is keeping the lights on — and is the foundation for decentralization
2026-04-11-intelligence-should-be-free-like-water-and-air-tcp4 — Intelligence should be free like water and air
2026-04-23-what-happens-when-chinese-labs-stop-shipping-open-acbs — What happens when Chinese labs stop shipping open models?