# GPU Economics — 2024 68 predictions

URL for any entry below: https://www.gregosuri.com/predictions/{theme}/{id}/
Markdown twin: append `index.md`.
This is a title index. Full quotes and citation details are in individual twins.

## gpu-economics — 68 statements, 2024–2024

Years: 2024 (68)

2024-01-09-a100-providers-can-recover-hardware-cost-within-a-4yvd — A100 providers can recover hardware cost within a year
2024-01-09-akash-growing-150-month-over-month-6w2v — Akash growing 150% month-over-month
2024-01-09-without-100m-or-hyperscaler-backing-high-density-g-xl26 — Without $100M or hyperscaler backing, high-density GPUs are unobtainable
2024-01-16-liquidity-mining-for-gpus-bfpp — Liquidity mining for GPUs
2024-02-14-5-of-global-gdp-will-be-spent-on-ai-hardware-klnh — \~5% of global GDP will be spent on AI hardware
2024-03-02-600-gpus-month-coming-online-h100s-at-2-hour-u2y4 — 600 GPUs/month coming online; H100s at $2/hour
2024-03-02-big-clouds-control-gpu-leasing-startups-are-locked-yaoo — Big clouds control GPU leasing; startups are locked out
2024-03-02-there-are-free-gpus-everywhere-gpus-are-the-new-sp-ce3h — There are free GPUs everywhere; GPUs are the new spice
2024-03-19-gpus-harder-to-get-than-drugs-sub-2-h100s-on-akash-zhzm — GPUs "harder to get than drugs"; sub-$2 H100s on Akash
2024-03-27-gpu-supply-crunch-lasts-until-2026-biggest-war-che-kssc — GPU supply crunch lasts until \~2026; biggest war chest wins
2024-03-27-gpus-are-the-most-important-chipsets-for-humanity-7cen — GPUs are the most important chipsets for humanity
2024-03-27-gpus-are-the-new-spice-wpo3 — GPUs are the new spice
2024-03-30-gpus-are-the-new-spice-oyzi — GPUs are the new spice
2024-05-20-nvidia-is-deprioritizing-hyperscalers-by-design-iho5 — Nvidia is deprioritizing hyperscalers by design
2024-05-29-akash-as-the-first-place-to-get-frontier-chips-ojbq — Akash as the first place to get frontier chips
2024-05-29-claimed-2018-call-that-ml-would-drive-gpu-demand-iv64 — Claimed 2018 call that ML would drive GPU demand
2024-05-29-more-available-gpus-than-amazon-m7k7 — More available GPUs than Amazon
2024-06-09-2018-whitepaper-called-the-ml-compute-crunch-2eia — 2018 whitepaper called the ML compute crunch
2024-06-09-scaling-supply-is-easier-than-scaling-demand-eqqe — Scaling supply is easier than scaling demand
2024-06-09-sub-2-on-demand-h100s-are-unheard-of-mxnc — Sub-$2 on-demand H100s are unheard of
2024-06-09-the-spice-must-flow-gpus-sell-themselves-without-d-jim6 — "The spice must flow" — GPUs sell themselves without demand incentives
2024-06-11-h100s-at-1-46-hour-vs-12-on-amazon-if-you-can-get-wvvg — H100s at $1.46/hour vs. $12 on Amazon — if you can get one at all
2024-06-11-the-2018-whitepaper-called-the-ml-gpu-boom-seven-y-vdrv — The 2018 whitepaper called the ML/GPU boom seven years early
2024-06-13-2-hr-h100s-vs-amazon-s-12-r2mz — $2/hr H100s vs Amazon's $12
2024-06-13-5-of-global-gdp-will-be-spent-on-ai-compute-by-203-kiod — 5% of global GDP will be spent on AI compute by 2030
2024-06-13-ai-can-t-embed-in-everyday-products-not-enough-chi-pcqz — AI can't embed in everyday products — not enough chips
2024-06-13-gpu-supply-chain-eases-in-three-to-five-years-5rhv — GPU supply chain eases in three to five years
2024-06-13-no-challenger-threatens-nvidia-for-five-years-gyt7 — No challenger threatens Nvidia for five years
2024-06-13-revenue-to-triple-or-quadruple-within-two-months-vukk — Revenue to triple or quadruple within two months
2024-06-14-gpu-scarcity-is-a-coordination-problem-blockchains-yctq — GPU scarcity is a coordination problem blockchains solve
2024-06-18-akash-is-the-only-place-to-get-an-h100-on-demand-6evb — Akash is the only place to get an H100 on demand
2024-06-18-the-2017-whitepaper-predicted-ai-demand-would-outr-6evb — The 2017 whitepaper predicted AI demand would outrun GPU supply
2024-06-19-ai-compute-to-5-of-global-gdp-by-2030-supply-chain-fu4u — AI compute to 5% of global GDP by 2030; supply chain eases in 3-5 years
2024-07-22-breaking-nvidia-s-monopoly-via-amd-first-tinybox-w-tdym — Breaking Nvidia's monopoly via AMD — first tinybox will run on Akash
2024-07-22-cutting-the-cloud-middleman-removes-amazon-s-43-ma-byu7 — Cutting the cloud middleman removes Amazon's \~43% margin
2024-07-22-gpus-are-nearly-impossible-to-lease-on-demand-nzib — GPUs are nearly impossible to lease on demand
2024-07-29-supply-is-solved-by-incentives-demand-side-onboard-r3jp — Supply is solved by incentives; demand-side onboarding is the real bottleneck
2024-07-29-trial-wallets-will-unlock-a-significant-demand-inc-y3vb — Trial wallets will unlock a significant demand increase within months
2024-08-02-akash-predicted-the-gpu-shortage-in-its-2018-white-rrno — Akash predicted the GPU shortage in its 2018 whitepaper
2024-08-02-enormous-idle-gpu-supply-sits-in-crypto-miners-and-a32p — Enormous idle GPU supply sits in crypto miners and warehouses
2024-08-02-gpus-are-nearly-impossible-to-lease-on-demand-gc32 — GPUs are nearly impossible to lease on demand
2024-09-10-cloud-providers-dictate-who-gets-to-train-ai-ctcy — Cloud providers dictate who gets to train AI
2024-09-10-data-centers-sit-unused-85-of-the-time-ctcy — Data centers sit unused 85% of the time
2024-09-10-on-demand-h100s-at-1-50-hour-unheard-of-in-traditi-4566 — On-demand H100s at $1.50/hour, unheard of in traditional cloud
2024-09-20-akash-is-80-cheaper-than-amazon-h100s-at-1-49-vs-5-6ceq — Akash is \~80% cheaper than Amazon; H100s at $1.49 vs $5
2024-09-25-akash-is-80-cheaper-than-amazon-h100s-at-1-49-vs-5-u7mq — Akash is \~80% cheaper than Amazon; H100s at $1.49 vs $5
2024-09-26-akash-is-airbnb-economics-vs-cloud-s-hilton-econom-zcbo — Akash is Airbnb economics vs. cloud's Hilton economics
2024-09-26-cheapest-h100s-in-the-industry-7cod — Cheapest H100s in the industry
2024-09-27-aws-s-60-margins-are-incompatible-with-a-public-ut-jdip — AWS's 60%+ margins are incompatible with a public utility
2024-09-27-nvidia-demand-is-already-declining-as-open-models-b3jd — Nvidia demand is already declining as open models run on non-Nvidia chips
2024-09-27-nvidia-won-t-stay-dominant-i-don-t-want-to-live-in-rdvc — Nvidia won't stay dominant — "I don't want to live in a digital feudalism"
2024-10-01-gpu-demand-will-keep-outpacing-supply-akash-is-the-v2wg — GPU demand will keep outpacing supply; Akash is the only on-demand source
2024-10-01-utilization-gated-supply-incentives-50-used-releas-bvk6 — Utilization-gated supply incentives: 50% used releases rewards to double capacity
2024-10-02-nvidia-is-backlogged-18-months-to-2-years-on-h100s-tra3 — NVIDIA is backlogged 18 months to 2 years on H100s
2024-10-02-serving-apple-s-users-would-take-a-billion-h100s-o-tra3 — Serving Apple's users would take a billion H100s — only \~700,000 exist
2024-10-02-the-endgame-is-one-h100-class-gpu-per-user-refresh-tra3 — The endgame is one H100-class GPU per user, refreshed yearly
2024-10-16-akash-daily-spend-grew-10x-in-a-year-wqid — Akash daily spend grew 10x in a year
2024-11-09-akash-is-ebay-for-gpus-iycn — Akash is eBay for GPUs
2024-11-09-nvidia-is-akash-s-biggest-user-jhd3 — Nvidia is Akash's biggest user
2024-11-09-sub-2-hour-h100s-mean-the-market-is-in-oversupply-bkjt — Sub-$2/hour H100s mean the market is in oversupply
2024-11-14-data-centers-are-85-90-underutilized-bjtc — Data centers are 85-90% underutilized
2024-11-26-1700-growth-1-cloud-market-share-in-about-five-yea-icin — 1700% growth; 1% cloud market share in about five years
2024-11-26-75-90-of-data-center-capacity-is-underutilized-201-oojj — 75-90% of data center capacity is underutilized (2017 supercloud paper)
2024-11-26-92-gpu-utilization-highest-of-any-cloud-pfgl — 92% GPU utilization — highest of any cloud
2024-11-26-compute-futures-markets-within-a-year-wnyu — Compute futures markets within a year
2024-11-26-nvidia-s-dominance-won-t-last-long-v33a — Nvidia's dominance won't last long
2024-12-06-akash-delivers-the-same-compute-as-aws-for-80-chea-3xhv — Akash delivers the same compute as AWS for 80% cheaper by reaching idle capacity
2024-12-06-the-cloud-tax-half-of-every-dollar-for-online-serv-r733 — The "cloud tax": half of every dollar for online services goes to four providers