# GPU Economics — 2023 71 predictions

URL for any entry below: https://www.gregosuri.com/predictions/{theme}/{id}/
Markdown twin: append `index.md`.
This is a title index. Full quotes and citation details are in individual twins.

## gpu-economics — 71 statements, 2023–2023

Years: 2023 (71)

2023-01-13-19b-of-ethereum-mining-gpus-sit-idle-post-merge-ak-mjs7 — \~$19B of Ethereum-mining GPUs sit idle post-merge — Akash will target them
2023-01-13-gpus-on-akash-within-three-months-ai-avatar-apps-a-jols — GPUs on Akash within three months; AI avatar apps as first killer demand
2023-01-13-the-cloud-is-breaking-down-under-ai-gpu-scarcity-indd — The cloud is breaking down under AI GPU scarcity
2023-01-20-gpus-coming-to-akash-within-six-months-maybe-even-5tp7 — GPUs coming to Akash within six months — maybe even to secure Bitcoin
2023-02-01-gpus-are-next-on-akash-yykm — GPUs are next on Akash
2023-02-16-a100s-five-week-waits-and-concentrated-ownership-wftk — A100s: five-week waits and concentrated ownership
2023-02-16-ai-demand-grows-10x-every-six-months-decentralize-oh3q — AI demand grows 10x every six months; decentralize or few companies control AI
2023-02-18-ai-complexity-is-doubling-every-six-months-gvvt — AI complexity is doubling every six months
2023-02-18-akash-gpu-market-to-launch-with-at-least-20-000-gp-azwa — Akash GPU market to launch with at least 20,000 GPUs
2023-02-18-chip-costs-to-rise-five-times-from-protectionism-t-6m5f — Chip costs to rise five times from protectionism/TSMC relocation
2023-02-18-gpu-prices-will-get-worse-not-better-izhp — GPU prices will get worse, not better
2023-02-25-900-000-ethereum-merge-gpus-to-come-online-during-36e6 — 900,000 Ethereum-merge GPUs to come online during 2023
2023-02-25-a100s-at-0-50-hour-vs-4-on-traditional-cloud-eumg — A100s at $0.50/hour vs. $4 on traditional cloud
2023-02-25-gpu-demand-doubling-every-3-5-months-gpt-4-at-a-tr-i2lg — GPU demand doubling every 3.5 months; GPT-4 at a trillion parameters
2023-03-30-ai-workloads-will-dominate-akash-on-cost-1-hr-a100-bccd — AI workloads will dominate Akash on cost: $1/hr A100s vs $4 on AWS
2023-05-09-akash-will-be-the-only-place-ml-devs-can-get-h100s-fxu7 — Akash will be the only place ML devs can get H100s
2023-05-09-gpus-are-the-new-oil-the-new-gold-f5ou — GPUs are the new oil / the new gold
2023-05-12-akash-as-the-only-cloud-with-h100s-no-longer-just-fiak — Akash as the only cloud with H100s — no longer just the cheap alternative
2023-05-12-clouds-selectively-gatekeep-high-end-gpus-openai-g-v2lz — Clouds selectively gatekeep high-end GPUs; OpenAI got a leg up
2023-05-12-ml-companies-should-own-their-own-gpus-for-soverei-2uxj — ML companies should own their own GPUs for sovereignty
2023-05-12-nvidia-is-a-software-company-not-a-hardware-compan-rdbi — Nvidia is a software company, not a hardware company
2023-05-17-gpu-supply-won-t-catch-demand-for-years-n5h4 — GPU supply won't catch demand for years
2023-05-17-gpus-are-the-new-oil-d5ak — GPUs are the new oil
2023-06-03-gpus-are-the-blood-for-ai-whoever-controls-gpus-co-w6pn — GPUs are the blood for AI; whoever controls GPUs controls AI
2023-06-03-the-ethereum-merge-unleashed-19b-of-idle-gpus-as-c-7jsc — The Ethereum merge unleashed $19B of idle GPUs as centralized infrastructure crumbles
2023-06-10-ai-wave-means-exponential-compute-demand-z5xh — AI wave means exponential compute demand
2023-06-10-akash-launches-gpus-from-a-position-of-strength-b6dj — Akash launches GPUs from a position of strength
2023-06-10-chip-market-to-grow-10x-to-400b-in-nine-years-cfop — Chip market to grow \~10x to $400B in nine years
2023-06-10-chips-are-the-new-oil-stwy — Chips are the new oil
2023-06-10-gpu-costs-and-demand-both-rising-for-years-due-to-dh7e — GPU costs and demand both rising for years due to geopolitics
2023-06-10-gpu-scarcity-makes-a-secondary-market-inevitable-ynds — GPU scarcity makes a secondary market inevitable
2023-06-12-ai-compute-market-will-be-worth-trillions-xkaj — AI compute market will be worth trillions
2023-06-12-airbnb-for-data-centers-t52c — Airbnb for data centers
2023-06-12-from-cheap-cloud-to-access-cloud-ngoh — From cheap cloud to access cloud
2023-06-15-1-5t-ai-spend-vs-a-200m-market-cap-3wxi — $1.5T AI spend vs a $200M market cap
2023-06-15-akash-as-the-world-s-first-open-gpu-secondary-mark-wd7a — Akash as the world's first open GPU secondary market
2023-06-15-gpus-are-the-oil-for-ai-supply-chain-broken-for-2-lbkj — GPUs are the oil for AI; supply chain broken for 2-5 years
2023-08-31-akash-is-the-most-capable-gpu-cloud-p3ap — Akash is the most capable GPU cloud
2023-08-31-amd-is-at-least-two-years-behind-nvidia-ygki — AMD is at least two years behind Nvidia
2023-08-31-best-amd-chips-will-land-on-akash-before-any-cloud-zuoi — Best AMD chips will land on Akash before any cloud
2023-08-31-nvidia-is-deliberately-fragmenting-the-gpu-market-64jo — Nvidia is deliberately fragmenting the GPU market
2023-08-31-openai-can-t-buy-gpus-proof-of-demand-wnvv — OpenAI can't buy GPUs — proof of demand
2023-09-06-1-5-trillion-ai-spend-in-the-next-five-years-y7l5 — $1.5 trillion AI spend in the next five years
2023-09-06-gpus-are-the-oil-for-ai-shortage-lasts-2-5-years-y7l5 — GPUs are the oil for AI; shortage lasts 2–5 years
2023-09-25-akash-is-the-airbnb-for-high-end-gpus-adn4 — Akash is the Airbnb for high-end GPUs
2023-09-25-chips-are-the-new-oil-adn4 — Chips are the new oil
2023-09-25-nvidia-is-deliberately-fragmenting-the-gpu-market-adn4 — NVIDIA is deliberately fragmenting the GPU market
2023-09-28-1-of-global-gdp-will-go-to-machine-learning-qs2i — 1% of global GDP will go to machine learning
2023-09-28-globally-distributed-consumer-gpu-clusters-viable-vocw — Globally distributed consumer-GPU clusters viable within two years
2023-09-29-akash-is-the-secondary-market-for-the-gpu-supply-c-ezxl — Akash is the secondary market for the GPU supply crunch
2023-09-29-all-a100s-sold-out-within-three-weeks-of-gpu-launc-hkfm — All A100s sold out within three weeks of GPU launch
2023-09-29-h100s-take-two-years-to-get-harder-than-a-rolex-x2dv — H100s take two years to get — "harder than a Rolex"
2023-09-29-nvidia-deprioritized-the-hyperscalers-as-competito-c4xj — Nvidia deprioritized the hyperscalers as competitors
2023-10-26-80-of-akash-demand-will-be-inference-wgw3 — 80% of Akash demand will be inference
2023-10-26-ai-products-will-be-forced-to-distributed-clusters-ihm3 — AI products will be forced to distributed clusters by unit economics
2023-10-26-chatgpt-needs-one-h100-per-concurrent-user-nitf — ChatGPT needs one H100 per concurrent user
2023-10-26-crypto-s-inverted-problem-high-demand-not-enough-g-l4xp — Crypto's inverted problem: high demand, not enough GPU supply
2023-10-28-akash-is-the-airbnb-of-gpu-contracts-mnyf — Akash is the Airbnb of GPU contracts
2023-10-28-heterogeneous-compute-can-never-be-fully-commoditi-gije — Heterogeneous compute can never be fully commoditized
2023-10-28-nvidia-is-deliberately-depowering-the-big-clouds-bwko — Nvidia is deliberately depowering the big clouds
2023-10-28-what-happens-with-access-to-a-million-gpus-fp7f — What happens with access to a million GPUs
2023-12-11-frontier-launches-on-nvidia-mass-adoption-spreads-t6ni — Frontier launches on NVIDIA; mass adoption spreads to cheaper GPUs
2023-12-11-gpu-supply-must-be-diversified-taiwan-is-a-single-t6ni — GPU supply must be diversified — Taiwan is a single point of failure
2023-12-18-95-utilization-on-a100s-no-incentives-needed-dn3c — 95% utilization on A100s, no incentives needed
2023-12-18-gpus-are-36-of-all-time-revenue-after-90-days-hxg7 — GPUs are 36% of all-time revenue after 90 days
2023-12-18-h100s-12-hr-on-amazon-vs-2-hr-on-akash-5jbw — H100s: \~$12/hr on Amazon vs \~$2/hr on Akash
2023-12-18-incentives-will-make-akash-the-cheapest-place-for-idj2 — Incentives will make Akash the cheapest place for A100s
2023-12-19-50-utilization-is-the-marketplace-sweet-spot-p3na — 50% utilization is the marketplace sweet spot
2023-12-19-akash-is-4-5x-render-s-usage-kfgu — Akash is \~4-5x Render's usage
2023-12-19-chip-supply-is-nowhere-close-to-demand-get-chips-i-2pfy — Chip supply is nowhere close to demand — get chips into people's hands
2023-12-19-milestone-1-million-a-day-in-network-spend-wqt4 — Milestone: $1 million a day in network spend