# Energy & AI 129 predictions

URL for any entry below: https://www.gregosuri.com/predictions/{theme}/{id}/
Markdown twin: append `index.md`.
This is a title index. Full quotes and citation details are in individual twins.

## energy-ai — 129 statements, 2018–2026

Years: 2018 (2); 2021 (1); 2022 (5); 2023 (4); 2024 (12); 2025 (78); 2026 (27)

2018-04-26-a-single-bitcoin-transaction-powers-an-american-ho-qm4e — A single Bitcoin transaction powers an American house for a week
2018-04-26-solar-panels-heating-water-while-hashing-an-early-p3rn — Solar panels heating water while hashing — an early energy-compute convergence vision
2021-06-09-decentralizing-compute-decentralizes-energy-consum-eind — Decentralizing compute decentralizes energy consumption
2022-01-05-wasted-renewable-overage-in-texas-can-power-akash-7bsy — Wasted renewable overage in Texas can power Akash data centers
2022-07-01-decentralized-systems-look-inward-for-efficiency-n-d4k6 — Decentralized systems look inward for efficiency, not outward expansion
2022-10-13-mission-equitable-computing-and-a-greener-planet-kj2j — Mission: equitable computing and a greener planet
2022-12-01-decentralized-cloud-is-inherently-greener-sell-cap-6q2u — Decentralized cloud is inherently greener — sell capacity that's already burning carbon
2022-12-11-efficiency-over-expansion-reuse-deployed-compute-ln7f — Efficiency over expansion — reuse deployed compute
2023-02-16-decentralization-is-a-global-energy-efficiency-pla-4nxt — Decentralization is a global energy-efficiency play; "web3 is greener"
2023-02-25-web3-is-greener-it-s-about-efficiency-dk6t — Web3 is greener — it's about efficiency
2023-10-28-compute-is-a-logical-abstraction-of-energy-dpdx — Compute is a logical abstraction of energy
2023-12-18-5-of-global-gdp-will-be-spent-on-ai-compute-by-203-yruv — \~5% of global GDP will be spent on AI compute by \~2030
2024-05-20-the-real-bottleneck-is-power-not-compute-z4hd — The real bottleneck is power, not compute
2024-06-19-next-frontier-a-truly-decentralized-power-market-3x7z — Next frontier: a truly decentralized power market
2024-10-16-by-2030-20-of-us-electricity-will-be-consumed-by-a-7oiu — By 2030, 20% of US electricity will be consumed by AI
2024-10-16-training-compute-is-scaling-to-gigawatt-clusters-i-rnhv — Training compute is scaling to gigawatt clusters — it is going to be nuclear
2024-10-24-ai-s-power-curve-50mw-on-diesel-today-250mw-next-t-vbgr — AI's power curve: 50MW on diesel today, 250MW next, then 1.2GW — only nuclear can feed it
2024-11-09-ai-power-needs-grow-half-an-order-of-magnitude-per-nofg — AI power needs grow half an order of magnitude per year — beyond 1GW means nuclear
2024-11-09-ai-will-consume-20-of-the-us-grid-by-2030-lmxa — AI will consume 20% of the US grid by 2030
2024-11-09-type-1-civilization-in-his-lifetime-acvw — Type 1 civilization in his lifetime
2024-11-14-ai-will-have-to-go-nuclear-qeim — AI will have to go nuclear
2024-11-25-ai-energy-needs-grow-5x-per-year-with-model-size-e6yd — AI energy needs grow 5x per year with model size
2024-11-25-in-two-years-training-a-frontier-model-will-need-a-j66f — In two years, training a frontier model will need a nuclear reactor
2024-11-25-only-china-can-build-reactors-fast-enough-energy-i-5mh4 — Only China can build reactors fast enough; energy is the ignored bottleneck
2025-01-02-50mw-today-250mw-in-2026-1-2gw-the-year-after-76yh — 50MW today, 250MW in 2026, 1.2GW the year after
2025-01-02-ai-is-hitting-a-wall-with-energy-growing-5x-a-year-76yh — AI is hitting a wall with energy, growing \~5x a year
2025-01-02-everyone-will-produce-energy-locally-and-compute-l-76yh — Everyone will produce energy locally and compute locally
2025-01-31-single-data-center-training-caps-out-in-two-years-vcy7 — Single-data-center training caps out in two years; distributed training is the only way out
2025-03-17-centralized-ai-training-hits-an-energy-cap-in-two-n6te — Centralized AI training hits an energy cap in two years
2025-03-17-skeptical-of-hyperscale-buildout-growth-is-in-sub-trnh — Skeptical of hyperscale buildout; growth is in sub-10MW data centers
2025-04-02-ai-training-energy-doubles-every-two-years-bhkt — AI training energy doubles every two years
2025-04-02-centralized-data-centers-are-a-national-security-l-q34p — Centralized data centers are a national-security liability
2025-04-02-existing-sources-won-t-cut-it-ai-takes-2-8-of-glob-dqo7 — Existing sources won't cut it; AI takes 2-8% of global energy
2025-04-02-inference-math-150-calls-person-day-by-2040-energy-ugwt — Inference math: \~150 calls/person/day by 2040, energy growing 37%/year
2025-04-02-kardashev-type-1-in-his-lifetime-55az — Kardashev Type 1 in his lifetime
2025-04-02-memphis-colossus-runs-on-gas-and-it-s-poisoning-th-qk5v — Memphis Colossus runs on gas, and it's poisoning the city
2025-04-11-ai-will-consume-2-of-global-energy-within-15-years-romv — AI will consume 2% of global energy within 15 years — conservatively
2025-04-11-china-will-out-accelerate-the-us-on-ai-because-it-rjfs — China will out-accelerate the US on AI because it has the energy
2025-04-11-no-free-nuclear-reactors-left-and-no-way-to-build-5bro — No free nuclear reactors left — and no way to build new ones in time
2025-04-11-training-power-doubles-every-two-years-900mw-model-badr — Training power doubles every two years — 900MW models by 2028
2025-04-11-we-are-burning-fossil-fuels-to-make-ai-xai-memphis-g55k — We are burning fossil fuels to make AI — xAI Memphis
2025-05-13-2-million-small-solar-data-centers-by-2040-could-s-j2w6 — \~2 million small solar data centers by 2040 could solve the global energy problem
2025-05-13-ai-heading-to-150-prompts-day-per-user-and-8-of-gl-j2w6 — AI heading to \~150 prompts/day per user and \~8% of global energy by 2040
2025-05-13-by-2030-or-sooner-we-run-out-of-energy-to-train-ne-j2w6 — By 2030 or sooner, we run out of energy to train new models
2025-05-13-solar-rooftops-can-power-the-distributed-training-j2w6 — Solar rooftops can power the distributed-training nodes
2025-05-13-xai-s-memphis-data-center-draws-150-mw-but-gets-on-j2w6 — xAI's Memphis data center draws \~150 MW but gets only \~7 MW from the grid
2025-06-03-ai-will-consume-8-of-global-energy-by-2040-2hzi — AI will consume \~8% of global energy by 2040
2025-06-03-gpus-are-a-wrapper-on-energy-rp4n — GPUs are a wrapper on energy
2025-06-03-the-energy-demand-cannot-be-met-the-only-solution-qjor — The energy demand cannot be met — the only solution is distribution
2025-06-03-within-six-years-only-nuclear-reactors-can-power-a-oaee — Within six years, only nuclear reactors can power a frontier training run
2025-06-03-xai-memphis-runs-on-burning-gas-not-the-grid-slfu — xAI Memphis runs on burning gas, not the grid
2025-06-24-ai-will-consume-30-of-us-energy-by-2030-lrl7 — AI will consume 30% of US energy by 2030
2025-06-24-by-2028-ai-data-centers-could-use-12-of-the-us-gri-ppgi — By 2028 AI data centers could use 12% of the US grid
2025-06-24-by-2030-only-nuclear-scale-power-can-train-a-state-yped — By 2030 only nuclear-scale power can train a state-of-the-art model
2025-06-24-compute-migrates-to-the-greenest-cheapest-power-yxec — Compute migrates to the greenest, cheapest power
2025-06-24-decentralization-will-unlock-small-untapped-energy-4suk — Decentralization will unlock small, untapped energy sources
2025-06-24-kardashev-math-civilization-needs-500x-today-s-ene-jurk — Kardashev math: civilization needs 500x today's energy
2025-06-24-states-that-don-t-innovate-on-energy-policy-will-b-yacd — States that don't innovate on energy policy will be left behind
2025-06-24-watts-are-the-new-silicon-pvzk — "Watts are the new silicon"
2025-06-27-compute-as-a-grid-balancing-asset-following-clean-pn46 — Compute as a grid-balancing asset following clean power
2025-06-27-data-centers-to-12-of-us-electricity-by-2028-44-of-uj4n — Data centers to 12% of US electricity by 2028; 44% of new grid load
2025-06-27-kardashev-type-one-needs-500x-today-s-energy-ai-is-uuff — Kardashev Type One needs 500x today's energy; AI is the new fire
2025-06-27-the-chips-are-ready-the-circuits-aren-t-watts-are-o3fk — The chips are ready, the circuits aren't — watts are the new silicon
2025-07-01-a-type-1-civilization-emerges-from-a-network-of-mi-ai5b — A Type 1 civilization emerges from a network of millions, not one cloud provider
2025-07-01-ai-could-eat-12-of-the-us-grid-by-2028-the-bottlen-o3xz — AI could eat 12% of the US grid by 2028 — the bottleneck is electricity
2025-07-01-compute-that-follows-green-energy-train-in-arizona-ogvy — Compute that follows green energy: train in Arizona sun, infer on Kansas wind
2025-07-01-flip-the-model-power-attracts-compute-lvzm — Flip the model: power attracts compute
2025-07-01-kardashev-type-one-requires-500x-today-s-global-en-4ho5 — Kardashev Type One requires 500x today's global energy
2025-07-01-the-1-gigawatt-ai-cloud-doesn-t-need-one-building-wvpi — The 1-gigawatt AI cloud doesn't need one building
2025-07-01-us-data-centers-could-hit-12-of-the-grid-by-2028-4-se2g — US data centers could hit 12% of the grid by 2028; 40% of new AI data centers underpowered by 2026
2025-07-01-watts-are-the-new-silicon-w7lx — Watts are the new silicon
2025-07-04-data-centers-now-face-10-year-interconnection-queu-i2zv — Data centers now face 10-year interconnection queues
2025-07-05-ai-will-consume-30-of-us-energy-by-2030-pbi4 — AI will consume 30% of US energy by 2030
2025-07-05-by-2030-training-frontier-models-requires-gigawatt-exax — By 2030, training frontier models requires gigawatt supply — nuclear is the only way
2025-07-05-jevons-paradox-efficiency-will-only-increase-ai-us-wv23 — Jevons paradox: efficiency will only increase AI usage
2025-07-05-microgrids-at-the-edge-interacting-peer-to-peer-dq6o — Microgrids at the edge, interacting peer-to-peer
2025-07-05-utility-scale-ai-power-means-a-nuclear-reactor-not-dkww — Utility-scale AI power means a nuclear reactor, not solar
2025-07-16-ai-power-usage-to-hit-165-326-twh-by-2028-7ceh — AI power usage to hit 165–326 TWh by 2028
2025-07-31-china-builds-a-nuclear-reactor-s-worth-of-solar-ev-p7mv — China builds a nuclear reactor's worth of solar every two days; America's edge is decentralization
2025-07-31-doe-s-12-by-2028-data-center-forecast-is-conservat-p7mv — DOE's 12%-by-2028 data-center forecast is conservative; reality is 30-35%
2025-07-31-don-t-bring-power-to-the-ai-let-the-ai-go-to-the-p-p7mv — Don't bring power to the AI — let the AI go to the power source
2025-07-31-every-ai-company-is-adding-one-more-us-state-of-em-p7mv — Every AI company is adding one more US state of emissions
2025-07-31-musk-s-50-million-gpus-make-every-official-forecas-p7mv — Musk's 50 million GPUs make every official forecast look quaint
2025-07-31-rooftop-solar-is-the-cheapest-energy-a-texas-ranch-p7mv — Rooftop solar is the cheapest energy: a Texas ranch roof yields \~80 kW
2025-07-31-there-are-no-free-reactors-in-america-p7mv — There are no free reactors in America
2025-08-02-doe-508-twh-12-of-us-energy-for-ai-by-2028-7fjn — DOE: \~508 TWh, 12% of US energy for AI by 2028
2025-08-02-gartner-40-of-ai-data-centers-out-of-power-by-2026-n4js — Gartner: 40% of AI data centers out of power by 2026
2025-08-02-gpt-6-7-will-be-trained-by-a-nuclear-powered-data-ceg6 — GPT-6/7 will be trained by a nuclear-powered data center
2025-08-02-move-the-ai-workload-to-the-energy-energy-aware-sc-faww — Move the AI workload to the energy: energy-aware scheduling on Akash
2025-08-02-rolling-blackouts-by-next-year-xf6a — Rolling blackouts by next year
2025-08-02-stargate-s-carbon-two-thirds-of-vermont-ax3y — Stargate's carbon \= two-thirds of Vermont
2025-08-02-states-with-ev-mandates-will-suffer-most-under-ai-65hc — States with EV mandates will suffer most under AI load
2025-08-02-the-grid-is-so-fragile-he-s-going-fully-off-grid-tm6n — The grid is so fragile he's going fully off-grid
2025-10-10-a-nuclear-reactor-per-training-run-by-2030-aa2e — A nuclear reactor per training run by 2030
2025-10-10-ai-centralization-is-spiking-energy-prices-only-de-45f2 — AI centralization is spiking energy prices; only decentralization can coordinate it
2025-11-04-ai-is-becoming-the-substrate-of-civilization-but-f-qejs — AI is becoming the substrate of civilization — but foundations need power
2025-11-04-by-2028-data-centers-take-up-to-12-of-us-electrici-rbpl — By 2028, data centers take up to 12% of US electricity; 40% of AI data centers power-stalled by 2026
2025-11-04-schedulers-follow-the-sun-and-wind-ai-becomes-a-gr-omc6 — Schedulers follow the sun and wind — AI becomes a grid asset
2025-11-04-small-modular-data-centers-next-to-renewables-puzz-myix — Small modular data centers next to renewables — puzzle pieces, not megaprojects
2025-12-03-data-centers-are-running-out-of-power-40-by-2026-ruwp — Data centers are running out of power — 40% by 2026
2025-12-03-forget-waiting-on-nuclear-the-sun-is-the-reactor-a-plo3 — Forget waiting on nuclear — the sun is the reactor, and homes are the way
2025-12-03-move-the-workload-to-where-the-energy-is-4sgf — Move the workload to where the energy is
2026-02-12-ai-as-the-grid-s-load-balancer-the-problem-is-tran-p6hz — AI as the grid's load balancer — the problem is transmission, not generation
2026-02-12-crypto-ai-and-energy-converge-into-one-load-balanc-zz72 — Crypto, AI and energy converge into one load-balanced system
2026-02-12-gpus-were-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-memory-storage-en-pppy — GPUs were the tip of the iceberg — memory, storage, energy next
2026-02-24-agent-energy-usage-isn-t-priced-into-forecasts-bul-hgx4 — Agent energy usage isn't priced into forecasts — bullish distributed training
2026-02-24-ai-power-demand-roughly-doubling-by-2030-ucjp — AI power demand roughly doubling by 2030
2026-02-24-coreweave-crashed-on-energy-not-chips-aayy — CoreWeave crashed on energy, not chips
2026-02-24-energy-can-t-scale-like-data-centers-isa4 — Energy can't scale like data centers
2026-02-24-energy-is-the-dark-horse-of-ai-zmv2 — Energy is the dark horse of AI
2026-02-24-northern-virginia-grid-unreliable-by-june-2027-aayy — Northern Virginia grid unreliable by June 2027
2026-03-28-china-adds-a-nuclear-reactor-of-solar-every-36-hou-kbuk — China adds a nuclear reactor of solar every 36 hours; the US can't catch up
2026-03-28-extending-residential-solar-to-ai-training-is-the-e67q — Extending residential solar to AI training is the winning move
2026-03-28-training-energy-doubles-every-2-years-gigawatt-sca-hi5v — Training energy doubles every \~2 years; gigawatt-scale training by 2030
2026-04-11-a-gpu-abstracts-energy-you-can-t-transmit-b2df — A GPU abstracts energy you can't transmit
2026-04-11-ai-s-shortage-cascade-chips-memory-energy-d7th — AI's shortage cascade: chips → memory → energy
2026-04-11-bitcoin-as-a-global-energy-load-balancer-ai-is-nex-ahtf — Bitcoin as a global energy load balancer — AI is next
2026-04-11-the-energy-wall-is-here-openai-cancellations-and-a-hxwl — The energy wall is here: OpenAI cancellations and a GDP giveback
2026-04-23-chips-quadruple-yearly-energy-has-4-14-year-lead-t-gz2g — Chips quadruple yearly; energy has 4-14 year lead times
2026-04-23-homes-as-power-plants-for-ai-cvxk — Homes as power plants for AI
2026-04-23-space-data-centers-become-real-in-3-5-years-if-ene-7bp4 — Space data centers become real in 3-5 years if energy isn't solved
2026-04-23-the-grid-was-never-designed-for-edge-generation-bhiv — The grid was never designed for edge generation
2026-04-23-the-sun-is-a-giant-nuclear-reactor-we-waste-renewa-46e5 — The sun is a giant nuclear reactor we waste; renewables should train AI
2026-04-23-we-called-gpu-scarcity-then-energy-scarcity-every-6ftj — We called GPU scarcity, then energy scarcity — every resource AI touches gets scarce
2026-07-17-14-year-turbine-lead-times-are-pausing-mega-projec-xszb — 14-year turbine lead times are pausing mega-projects
2026-07-17-congress-testimony-distributed-data-centers-as-the-lnag — Congress testimony: distributed data centers as the fix
2026-07-17-gigawatt-data-centers-by-2028-29-hit-the-nuclear-w-67xx — Gigawatt data centers by 2028-29 hit the nuclear wall
2026-07-29-announced-data-center-projects-are-stalling-a-cris-k4hj — Announced data-center projects are stalling — "a crisis beyond historical proportions"
2026-07-29-we-underpredicted-the-ai-energy-crunch-k4hj — "We underpredicted" the AI energy crunch