# Chips quadruple yearly; energy has 4-14 year lead times

- **Speaker:** Greg Osuri
- **Attribution:** attributed
- **Said:** 2026-04-23
- **Theme:** Energy & AI — https://www.gregosuri.com/predictions/energy-ai/
- **Source:** The Infrastructure Behind Agentic Finance, with Shashank Yadav and Greg Osuri of Akash Network (Fraction AI)
- **Watch at:** 00:56:53 — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=59w3DyJWAQc&t=3413s
- **Canonical:** https://www.gregosuri.com/predictions/energy-ai/2026-04-23-chips-quadruple-yearly-energy-has-4-14-year-lead-t-gz2g/
- **Cite as:** Greg Osuri, "Chips quadruple yearly; energy has 4-14 year lead times," The Infrastructure Behind Agentic Finance, with Shashank Yadav and Greg Osuri of Akash Network (Fraction AI), 23 Apr 2026, 00:56:53. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=59w3DyJWAQc&t=3413s

## Quote — verbatim

> It's very, very hard to get anything above 100 megawatts right now in terms of data centers... training scale is impossible because of energy... \[Nvidia\] literally quadrupled their supply chain. Energy doesn't work that way — there is a four-year lead time for transformers right now, like four years, and about a 14-year lead time for the turbines and generators.

## Context — site annotation, not spoken

"Does AI have a compute problem or an energy problem?" — "Right now it's energy." He contrasts Nvidia's H100 production ramp (caption-garbled figures: ~500K then ~2M) with grid hardware lead times; worst case is a return to coal, which still needs turbines.